Evaluating risk (interactive version)

Andy J. Wills

time	activity
0:00	Session start
0:05	Teach start
0:05	Intro - topic of this lecture
0:05	Sally Clark
0:06	Roy Meadows
0:10	Smoking and risk
0:15	Smokers die younger
0:17	Smokers have lower life expectancy
0:18	Any other info you need - chat interaction
0:24	Smokers have lower life expectancy, slide 2
0:28	Odds ratio
0:36	Life is risky
0:38	Life is risky? Yes, it is!
0:38	Odds ratio, slide 2
0:42	I am an individual, not a statistic!
0:45	Russian roulette
0:47	Inverse Russian roulette
0:50	Probability
0:52	Probability Exercise 1 - POLL 1 and results
0:58	Probabilty exercise 2 - POLL 2 and results
1:09	GAME SHOW: Setting up and playing the game (including volunteer)
1:14	What does the audience think? - POLL 3, stick or switch?
1:19	Working out the Monty Hall problem
1:26	Probability questions POLL 4 - Basketball, Roulette … and results
1:34	Conditional probability and randomness
1:36	Gamblers’ fallacy
1:39	Hot hand fallacy
	Probability questions POLL 5 - Linda, shared birthdays … and results
1:42	Linda, conjunction fallacy
1:44	Conjunction rule
1:47	Shared birthdays
1:48	More high-school maths
1:49	Birthday example
1:53	Sally Clark
1:54	Roy Meadows - expert witness
1:57	Roy Meadows - expert witness, slide 2
1:59	Teaching ends, session ends

Probability excercises

Exercise 1: Dice: 0.17 (1 in 6); Bus: 0.33 (1 in 3).

Exercise 2:

• Probability of dying during 2022, across everyone living in England or Wales (about 0.5%)

• Probability of getting 4 numbers in the next Lotto game if you buy one ticket (about 0.1%)

• Probability of committing suicide during 2022 if you live in England/Wales, and are aged 5-34 (about 0.005% – about 34% of the population in this age range, so about 20 million. About 1000 deaths by suicide in this group annually, so about .005%).

Monty Hall game

There are some slides to live-demonstrate the Monty Hall problem here